《新科学家》分析：猪流感并非只是大制药商搞的骗局那么简单 【转载】

按语：《新科学家》今日发表文章分析了“世纪骗局猪流感”，认为公众看法有所偏颇，实际情况更复杂: 猪流感目前并未结束；CDC估计美国死于猪流感的实际人数是官方公布的死亡人数的2.7倍；更有甚者，季节性流感患者90%是65岁以上的老年人，而猪流感患者88%则在65岁以下；所有受到采访的科学家都认为：当初开发猪流感疫苗的决定是正确的，这疫苗还得打，不能让1957-58H2N2“亚洲型流感”的悲剧重新上演。
—— Docofsoul
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Analysis: Swine flu is not just a hoax by big pharma
% P2 _& O3 ]+ ?7 M& y17:41 19 January 2010 by Debora MacKenzie
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As the dreaded autumn wave ends and official deaths remain relatively low, the backlash against the H1N1 pandemic response is in full swing. Claims range from a massive overreaction by health authorities to a conspiracy cooked up by big pharma. But while swine flu may have boosted profits for vaccine manufacturers, the reality of the pandemic is more complicated.
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First off, the pandemic isn't over. While cases in western Europe and North America have tailed off, the virus is still spreading in eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. Meanwhile, Europe and North America could see cases rise again, if the flu pandemic of 1957-8 is anything to go by.
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! a2 ~: ?3 ?* Y. Y! V# jBy January 1958, following an initially low death rate, officials assumed the pandemic was over, and vaccine went unused. But then there was a wave of deaths in the US in February, which might otherwise have been avoided (see graph). "They had vaccine but they didn't encourage its use," says Anne Schuchat of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. To prevent a similar scenario, the CDC recommends continued vaccination. Yet several countries and US states have vaccine gluts, and many European countries are cutting orders and selling or giving vaccine away.
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1 B: l& \4 B9 p% w$ e6 _1 N/ oEven if we don't see a 1958-style comeback, classifying the pandemic as a damp squib at this point would be premature. Although the World Health Organization's official death toll stands at 13,000 worldwide, this is likely to be an underestimate. "We anticipate that these figures will be much larger," Keiji Fukuda, head of flu at the WHO, told the press last week (PDF). Many cases are not seen by doctors, or are misdiagnosed: the CDC estimates that flu directly causes 2.7 times as many deaths as are officially counted in the US.
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What's more, straight death counts mask what was particularly scary about 2009 H1N1: that it doesn't just strike the old and infirm. About 90 per cent of seasonal flu victims are over 65. In contrast, 88 per cent of H1N1's victims have been under 65.
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" D% \$ O* J8 a& v* zThe perception that H1N1 is harmless may stem from ordinary people rarely seeing the severe cases, says D. A. Henderson of the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, who ran the CDC's flu surveillance in 1957 and famously led the eradication of smallpox. Of a similar misperception in 1957, he says: "A quarter of Americans had flu, and there were excess deaths. But for one watching from close range, it did little more than disrupt school football schedules."
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What about the millions paid to vaccine companies? All the scientists contacted by New Scientist say launching vaccine production at the start of the pandemic was appropriate. "When a virus emerges from the animal reservoir you don't know how it will behave," says Ilaria Capua of the World Organisation for Animal Health's flu reference lab in Legnaro, Italy. "We were quite lucky with this virus. Would you prefer to have no vaccine? This was the only thing we could do."
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& D: h0 m: P' N! O8 @) B' j- ?http://www.newscientist.com/arti ... -by-big-pharma.html

New Scientist 杂志很不错的！看过几期，不过有点费劲啊！