《经济学人》发表的关于G20峰会的文章及其翻译

海洋之心 · 发表于 2009-4-5 13:38:28

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The G20 outcome is better than nothing, but can the IMF save the world?

WHEN an infamous summit of world powers in London ended in 1933, such was the mood of protectionist acrimony that many argued it would have been better if the meeting had not been held at all. At times in the run up to the G20 gathering of world leaders in London on Thursday April 2nd it looked as if history might be repeated. But the leaders have shown some grit, and some ingenuity in finding money when little is about. Many holes can be picked in their pledges to reflate the world economy and re-regulate global finance. But, at the very least, it was better that they met than not.

The centerpiece of the leaders’ plan is, conveniently, the IMF, which they believe can add an extra $1 trillion in funding to the world economy without the risk of ballooning national budgets, or obstruction from national politicians. That financial conjuring trick gets the G20 out of a bind. Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, has made much of $5 trillion in public spending that governments around the world have promised to help shunt their economies out of recession in 2009-10. But big spenders such as America and Britain are up against their limits and fiscal hawks such as Germany are stubbornly convinced they have done enough.

That leaves the IMF as pump-primer of last resort, although not all of the funding promises made on Thursday were new. Japan and the European Union had already agreed to put $100 billion each into the IMF’s kitty. Rich countries such as America will provide a $500 billion credit line, known as New Arrangements to Borrow. This was trailed several weeks ago. Significantly, the IMF will print $250 billion of its own currency, known as special drawing rights, allocating sums to its members according to their quotas. It is not clear whether this can be redirected from rich countries to poor ones.

This flood of extra resources, plus an enhanced oversight role the G20 has given to the fund, will be a huge turnaround for an institution whose relevance had slumped in the boom years. Now the new money must be directed to developing countries, especially in eastern Europe. Many such countries have been loth to tap the fund because of the stigma involved. A pledge by the G20 to reform the fund’s governance soon may convince them that the leopard has changed its spots. This week Mexico secured a $47 billion credit line with the fund, with no strings attached, which may set a trend. Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution believes the commitment to reform is credible. His evidence is that China has agreed to chip in $40 billion, prior to any changes to its voting power in the IMF (it has the same heft as Belgium). Others, however, remain sceptical. “This is still supply chasing demand,” says Arvind Subramanian of the Centre for Global Development.

The importance of offering new sources of funds to the developing world should not be underestimated, however. By some estimates poor countries have $1.4 trillion of debts to roll over this year alone and Western creditors are hoarding their cash. These countries have far less fiscal room for manoeuvre than rich economies. They are also areas of the world where growth could rebound quite quickly, because households are not weighed down by the crushing debts typical in America and Europe. In a further fillip to many of them, the G20 agreed to ensure $250 billion in trade finance to help reboot global trade—though it was not clear how much of this was new money.

As for efforts to drag the developed world out of the mire, the G20 went perhaps further than had been expected, though undoubtedly not far enough. It emphasised the problem of scrubbing toxic assets off banks’ balance-sheets, but gave little guidance on how banks should be forced to mark down their assets to saleable prices. (Undermining that effort, on Thursday American accounting standard-setters watered down a mark-to-market provision that would have forced banks to value their assets at market prices. The short-sighted reprieve led to a huge rally in the shares of stricken banks such as Citigroup.)

It also, in a nod to strongly held German and French sentiments, called for regulation of hedge funds and other parts of the shadow banking system, a crack down on tax havens and banking secrecy, and more oversight of credit-rating agencies. There was little to suggest that one of the main causes of the crisis, incentives for banks to grow too big to fail, was being tackled.

Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%. American unemployment figures on Friday, which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate the world economy may have avoided a 1930s-style depression so far. But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay down their debts.

当1933年在伦敦举行的一个臭名昭著的世界大国首脑会议结束时，贸易保护主义者非常尖锐，他们之中很多人认为该会议不举行可能会更好。在4月2日星期四在伦敦举行的、聚集了世界众多领导人的G20峰会召开之前，有时候看上去这一切仿佛是历史在重演。但是，在到处都面临资金短缺之际，这些首脑们在寻求资金方面都展示出了一些勇气和聪明才智。虽然在他们对世界经济复苏和重新规范全球金融的承诺中仍能发现不少漏洞，但是，至少这回，会议召开比不召开要好。

这些首脑们的计划的核心，很简单，是IMF——他们认为它可以在不增加政府预算或者绕开各国政治家的妨碍的情况下，再给世界经济注入1万亿美元资金。这个金融戏法帮助G20脱离了困境。英国首相戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）称，世界各国政府都已允诺在2009-2010年间的公共开支将达5万亿美元以帮助走出衰退。但是，挥金如土的美国和英国反对其限制，而财政鹰派德国则顽固地认为他们做得已经够多了。

尽管G20于周四做出的融资承诺并无新意，但是，IMF俨然成为了全球经济信心和资本的加注器。日本和欧盟已同意分别向IMF注资 1000亿美元。美国等富国将根据《新借款协议》向IMF提供5000亿美元的信贷额。这一方案早在几周前就已有迹可循。最值得关注的是，IMF将启动特别提款权（SDR）制度，印制价值2500亿美元的国际结算货币，按会员国缴纳的份额分配给各参加国。SDR的启动是否能使资金从富国转向穷国，目前尚未可知。

额外资源的洪水般注入，加之G20已经强调对资金加强监管，这将在景气之年，给不景气的组织机构带来巨大的好转。目前，这些新货币一定会进入发展中国家，特别是东欧国家。因为先前不好的名声，其中许多国家已经在谨慎使用资金。G20发誓要尽快改善基金管理，使其确信“美洲狮”已经改变了做法。

本周，墨西哥已经确定 470 亿美元的资金信用额度，无任何附加条件，它可以形成一种趋势。美国布鲁金斯学会的 Eswar Prasad 认为此项改革承诺是可信的，其依据是中国已经同意，在国际货币基金组织内投标权改变之前注入 400 亿美元（与比利时有同等分量）。然而，其它人仍然持怀疑态度。全球发展中心的Arvind Subramanian 说：“这仍然是供应链的追逐需求。

然而，不要低估给发展中国家提供新资金来源的重要性。据估算，贫困国家单是今年就有1.4万亿美元的债务要延期，而另一边厢，西方债权人却正在囤积现金。这些落后国家远不如发达国家那样有充足的财政回旋余地，但他们可能也是世界上经济能快速复苏的地区，因为他们的家庭不会像美国欧洲的家庭那样受到沉重债务的拖累。为了进一步提振他们当中大部分的经济，G20与会国同意，要确保在贸易金融中投入2500亿美元以帮助振兴全球贸易，尽管目前尚不清楚，这当中会有多少是新的资金。

尽管肯定力度不足，但在将发达国家拖出泥潭的努力方面，G20峰会可能依然超出人们的期望。此次会议强调了清洗银行资产负债表中有毒资产的问题，但是在银行如何削减资产至适于出售的价格上，却没有给出解决方案。（周四，美国会计标准降低了市价条款，银行不得不重新对资产以市场价估值。这一短期行为使得遭难的银行——如花旗银行——的市场表现得以迅速回升，这一措施抵消了上述的努力）另外，由于对德国和法国意见点头赞同，会议呼吁加强针对套利基金和其他银行系统阴暗面的管制，严查避税场所，对银行机密行为进行制裁，并对客户信贷机构实施严格监管。而对此次危机重要的原因之一，即银行膨胀过快从而陷落的诱因，此次会议几乎没有进行探讨。

在G20峰会后，金融市场开始复苏，尽管这只是因为随着和谐团结声音的传出，带来了一点利好消息而已。欧洲央行降息的消息尽管令人沮丧，但它还是在周四将主要利率调低了0.25%个百分点，至1.25%。美国周五公布的失业数据预计会令人震惊，可能也会打击这种乐观情绪，它可能会刺激G20领导人的情绪，以尽快宣布复兴。现在看来，他们想重新刺激世界经济的努力可能会避免1930年代的大萧条。但因着西方的银行、商业机构和房产人依然有难以按时还债的困扰，不断上升的失业率和多年来的积弊可能难以攻克。

金融市场在20国峰会的新闻后开始重振旗鼓，同时也是因为一系列经济好消息的出台给市场带来了和谐之声，仅管有些失望的是欧洲中央银行周四将主要利率下降了0.25个百分点，降至1.25%。周五将公布的美国失业率可能会让人吃惊而打击一部分乐观主义者，它将鼓励20国峰会领导尽力去追求成功。他们刺激世界经济的努力到目前为止避免了上世纪三十年代经济大萧条的重演，但是西方国家上升的失业率和生活的艰难仍将摆在面前，因为西方国家的银行、公司和家庭需要继续努力去偿还债务。

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[英语] 《经济学人》发表的关于G20峰会的文章及其翻译

注册后推荐绑定QQ，之后方才可以使用下方的“用QQ帐号登录”。